Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees
Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman for The Messenger
Ethan Coen and Joel Coen for A Serious Man
Pete Docter and Bob Peterson for Up

Having taken home the BAFTA, it would seem that The Hurt Locker has positioned itself for a potential clean sweep at the Oscars this year. The film has garnered almost uniformly excellent reviews and its meagre box-office take appears to have had little impact on its chances come Awards season. To get it out of the way at the start, this is going to be the Iraq film to compete for the awards, to The Messenger will have to put up with being the year’s second-best semi-apolitical Iraq movie.

For all the awards the film is picking up, however, the Oscars is likely to be a very different ceremony from the BAFTAs. Inglourious Basterds, beloved by many but met with indifference by others, had its detractors in the UK. But in the US, where it racked up a solid box-office and topped a few year-end lists, I’m thinking it has a much stronger chance of pipping The Hurt Locker to the script prize.

The opening up to ten top nominations this year, pointlessly, does indicate a desire for the Academy to spread the love around. A Serious Man won’t win anything and Up will have to take home the annual Pixar prize of Best Animated, so it’s only really between Boal and Tarantino. For me, despite The Hurt Locker’s BAFTA, Quentin is going to take this one home to open up the chance for The Hurt Locker to rack up its likely wins for Director and, possibly, Picture.

Predicted Winner: Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds

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